18 September late update: Nathan Sobey is OUT of South East Melbourne’s Saturday game in Perth with back tightness and will be reassessed before Monday’s game in Tasmania. That strengthens Skylar Mays’ Round 1 role and removes Sobey from our captaincy plans.
Updated: 17 September 2026
Thirteen games. Nine days. Two rounds. Almost no time to overreact responsibly.
NBL27 tips off on Saturday night and the opening stretch is less a gentle introduction than a full-speed fantasy stress test. Every team will show us something new, several major roles are still unsettled, two clubs double immediately in Round 1, four more double in Round 2, and a handful of injuries and late arrivals have created opportunities that may disappear almost as quickly as they arrived.
This is not another list of the best players.
This is the Opening Week Opportunity Guide: the 10 situations Buckets thinks are most likely to change how we view NBL27 fantasy once the games become real.
For SuperCoach managers, that means price, doubles and trades. For draft managers, it means minutes, usage and whether the role you drafted actually exists.
1. New Zealand's double just changed shape
The Breakers are one of only two teams playing twice in Round 1, with Illawarra on Sunday and Brisbane on Tuesday.
That already made Parker Jackson-Cartwright and Sam Mennenga obvious early fantasy focal points. Then New Zealand lost import forward Josiah-Jordan James to a torn hamstring, with the club saying he will be reassessed in four to six weeks.
That is not a small absence. James was expected to occupy real wing and forward minutes, defend multiple positions and help carry the physical load around New Zealand's core.
The Breakers have reportedly moved quickly to bring back Mojave King as an injury replacement, but even if King is available immediately, there is still a redistribution to watch.
The fantasy question is not simply "who replaces James?" It is:
who gets more shots, rebounds and closing-lineup minutes because James is gone?
PJC and Mennenga are already strong Round 1 plays because of the double. If the injury pushes even more responsibility toward the established core, their opening-week ceiling becomes even more interesting.
Buckets watch: New Zealand's first closing lineup, King''s immediate role, and whether Mennenga gets a larger share of the frontcourt offence.
2. South East Melbourne has the best kind of problem: two games to reveal the truth
The Phoenix are the other Round 1 double team, travelling to Perth on Saturday before facing Tasmania on Monday.
That means we do not need to wait long to find out how the new backcourt actually works.
Nathan Sobey remains the established star. Skylar Mays arrives with obvious on-ball upside. Angus Glover was excellent through the preseason. The Phoenix also have cheap depth pieces such as Hunter Goodrick, who has attracted plenty of SuperCoach interest because of his price and dual-position flexibility.
Two games in three days should expose the rotation very quickly.
Who starts? Who closes? Does Sobey remain the dominant late-clock creator? How much does Mays handle? Does Glover keep enough usage to sustain his preseason production? Do the cheapies get genuine rotation minutes or only situational run?
For SuperCoach, the double gives you points now.
For draft, it gives you information fast.
Buckets watch: the guard-minute split and whether any Phoenix cheapie is actually trusted when the game tightens.
3. Perth gets one last game before Brandon Knight changes the picture
We covered this in the first edition of Opportunity Knock, but it belongs here because the timing is perfect.
Perth has signed Brandon Knight to become its lead guard, yet he is unlikely to feature in Saturday's opener against South East Melbourne.
That potentially gives Elijah Pepper and Anthony Dell'Orso one more game with the extra creation responsibility they carried while Perth waited for its import point guard.
The trap is obvious: if either player produces a big Round 1 line, fantasy managers need to separate the score from the role that created it.
A six-assist Pepper game without Knight is not the same fantasy signal as a six-assist Pepper game with Knight playing 30 minutes beside him.
Then Perth doubles in Round 2.
That means the Wildcats could give us a temporary role on Saturday and a completely different fantasy ecosystem five days later.
Buckets watch: who initiates offence in Round 1, then who loses those touches when Knight enters the rotation.
4. Cole Anthony says he is ready. Now we find out what "ready" means
Cole Anthony has declared himself fit for Melbourne United's opener against Adelaide after missing the Blitz with a calf complaint and playing only once during the preseason.
That is good news for basketball. It also creates one of the most important role reads of Opening Night.
United does not lack talent. Luke Travers, Joe Ingles, Josh Oduro and the rest of Melbourne's revamped rotation can all contribute without Anthony dominating every possession.
So the first question is not whether Anthony can score. We know he can.
It is how quickly Melbourne hands him the offence.
Does he walk straight into 30-plus minutes and primary creation? Does United manage his workload? How much does his return pull usage away from the players who looked so attractive through the preseason?
That last question matters enormously because preseason fantasy scores are often produced in lineups that will never exist once everyone is healthy.
Buckets watch: Anthony's minutes, shot attempts and assist chances, plus what his presence does to Travers and Oduro.
5. Adelaide's Round 1 game is really a Round 2 scouting mission
Adelaide opens against Melbourne United on Saturday, then doubles in Round 2 with games against Perth and Cairns.
That makes the opener unusually useful.
Nobody needs convincing that Bryce Cotton can score fantasy points. Friday made the supporting cast much more interesting: Adelaide has ruled John Jenkins (back) and Isaac Humphries (knee) out of the opener. Trevor Gleeson hopes both can return for the next game, so this may be a one-game opportunity rather than a permanent reshuffle.
For fantasy, Nick Rakocevic is the cleanest immediate beneficiary. He averaged 27.5 projected SuperCoach points across his two Blitz games at $188,400 and now has a clearer route to centre minutes. Flynn Cameron and Zylan Cheatham also gain a little usage security, while Jacob Rigoni and Isaac White become rotation-minute watches rather than automatic buys.
Zylan Cheatham has already flashed the kind of rebounding and all-round production that can matter in fantasy, while Trevor Gleeson is integrating a roster designed to take the 36ers one step further after last season's Championship Series loss.
If Adelaide's roles look clean against Melbourne, the Round 2 double makes the entire rotation more actionable almost immediately.
If they look messy, fantasy managers have a reason to resist chasing the fixture alone.
Buckets watch: who consistently shares creation with Cotton, which forwards close, and whether Cheatham's preseason stat-stuffing carries into a real game.
6. Illawarra's Round 1 score matters less than its Round 2 role map
The Hawks have one of the most fantasy-friendly early schedules in the competition.
They play once in Round 1, then double in Rounds 2, 3 and 4. In fact, Illawarra has seven double-game rounds in the first 10.
That means Sunday's game against New Zealand should be treated as reconnaissance.
Will Hickey was outstanding in his limited preseason action. Milton Doyle arrives as a proven creator in a new environment. The Hawks also have Tyler Harvey, Darius Days, Kelan Martin and a deep collection of veterans who will compete for shots and minutes.
The fantasy edge may not come from guessing perfectly before Round 1.
It may come from watching one game, identifying the actual hierarchy, then buying or trading into three consecutive doubles.
Buckets watch: who leads the team in touches, who closes beside Doyle and Hickey, and whether Hickey's preseason production was a role signal or a small-sample explosion.
7. Cairns has too many interesting players for us to trust the preseason blindly
Cairns overhauled almost its entire roster and finished the preseason by putting 129 points on Brisbane.
Jack McVeigh scored 33 in that game. Keanu Pinder is back in the NBL. Jaylon Brown has shown scoring upside. Malique Lewis adds athleticism and defensive production. The Taipans also have enough experienced depth that minutes will need to be earned.
That is exciting for Cairns and mildly annoying for fantasy managers.
The Taipans face defending champion Sydney in Round 1, then double in Round 2 against Tasmania and Adelaide.
So, once again, the opening game is data.
Does McVeigh remain the clear offensive centrepiece? Does Pinder get enough centre usage to generate premium production? Is Brown a scorer or a true lead guard? Which wings actually survive the rotation crunch?
Buckets watch: the starting five, McVeigh's usage rate by eye, Pinder's minutes at centre, and which bench players are trusted late.
8. Brisbane's preseason stars now have to coexist
Few teams produced more fantasy intrigue in the preseason than Brisbane.
Arnas Velička showed elite playmaking. Nate Hinton filled up the box score. Tyrell Harrison looked dominant inside. All three posted strong fantasy numbers across the warm-up schedule.
The obvious temptation is to assume all three simply keep doing it.
Real regular-season rotations are less generous.
Brisbane's opener against New Zealand on Tuesday will be our first clean look at Will Weaver's hierarchy with the games counting. Velička has been described by his own coach as the "head of the snake", which strongly suggests the ball will be in his hands. Hinton's fantasy value depends on whether his rebounding, secondary playmaking and defensive production survive when usage tightens. Harrison's ceiling depends on health, minutes and how consistently Brisbane feeds him.
There may be multiple winners here. We just do not need to pretend preseason has already settled the order.
Buckets watch: Velička's time on ball, Hinton's secondary creation and whether Harrison is treated like an offensive pillar or primarily a finisher.
9. Kendric Davis is back, but Sydney has barely had him
Kendric Davis only returned to Australia on 12 September after passport issues kept him out of the Blitz.
He does not need a preseason to prove he is good. Last season he averaged 25.1 points and 7.1 assists before leading Sydney to the championship and winning Championship Series MVP.
What we do need to see is how quickly the new-look Kings reconnect around him.
Sydney has lost several pieces from last season's title team and has added new talent around Davis, Xavier Cooks and Matthew Dellavedova. Davis is still the obvious offensive engine, but his late arrival means chemistry has been built largely without him.
That creates two possible fantasy outcomes in Round 1 against Cairns.
One: Sydney simply hands Davis the ball and he resumes being Kendric Davis.
Two: the Kings ease him back into a more distributed offence while the new group finds its shape.
Either way, the first game tells us more than anything we saw from Sydney in the Blitz.
Buckets watch: Davis's minutes, usage and how much creation remains with the players who handled the ball during his absence.
10. The biggest opening-week edge may be waiting 48 hours before deciding what you learned
This is the least exciting point and probably the most important one.
Round 1 will produce ridiculous box scores.
Someone will hit six threes. Someone will play 31 minutes because a teammate is unavailable. Someone will score 14 fantasy points and send managers into a panic despite having exactly the role we wanted. Someone else will post 50 because they shot 80 per cent from the floor.
Do not confuse the first score with the first signal.
For SuperCoach, schedule absolutely matters. New Zealand and South East Melbourne double in Round 1, while Adelaide, Cairns, Illawarra and Perth double in Round 2. That creates legitimate reasons to move quickly.
But the best early moves will still be based on role, not just points.
For draft managers, the same principle is even stronger. You usually cannot replace a player you drop because of one ugly game. The first weekend should be used to identify changes in minutes, starting roles, usage and closing lineups before chasing whoever happened to shoot well.
The opening nine days will move fast.
That is exactly why the best fantasy managers should slow down just enough to understand what changed.
Buckets Opening Week checklist
Across the 13 games, these are the signals we care about most:
- Minutes: did the player actually earn a bigger role?
- Starts: was the preseason depth chart real?
- Creation: who is handling the ball when possessions matter?
- Closing lineups: who does the coach trust in the final five minutes?
- Injury replacements: is the opportunity temporary or structural?
- Double-game timing: can we act on new information immediately?
If a player checks several of those boxes, pay attention.
If they simply made five contested jumpers, enjoy the highlights and keep watching.
What to read next
- Opportunity Knock: Brandon Knight's Round 1 window
- NBL27 SuperCoach Round 1 injury report
- NBL27 projected starting fives and fantasy outlook
- NBL27 fantasy draft rankings: Top 50
- NBL27 SuperCoach Round 1 captains
Sources and methodology
This guide uses the official NBL27 Opening Week schedule, the NBL's Round 1 and preseason reporting, official injury updates, SuperCoach NBL double-game information and team roster news current to 17 September 2026. Fantasy conclusions are Buckets analysis based on role, minutes, schedule and likely opportunity rather than projected scores supplied by the NBL or SuperCoach.
Buckets is an independent fantasy basketball platform and is not affiliated with SuperCoach or the National Basketball League. SuperCoach is referenced for analysis and scoring comparison.
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